There’s been general belief that Microsoft had been way behind likes of google, apple when it comes to product like online productivity tools (Goog app vs Microsoft office 365) or Mobile OS platform (iOS vs Windows phone) or Search engine (Google vs Bing). At the time of writing this iOS (and Android) is far far ahead of Windows Phones in terms of sales and revenues. But top analyst like Gartner, IDC and iSuppli predicts that Windows phone platform will surprass iOS by 2015. These all (predication and MS prospect) looks lame and uninteresting to those who see Microsoft as traditional and outdated company which has lost its touch and which is no longer in position to compete with other tech leaders in terms of innovation.I don’t want to argue or debate about originality and innovation capability of Microsoft vs other major tech companies here but I am writing to point out how maturity of technology might play big role in changing the game and how Microsoft could be winner all the way.Apple came in first with consumer PCs in early 1980s. It was first mover. But Microsoft won that game somewhere in early nineties in terms of software as well as in terms of hardware as the technology became mature. In another example, Google introduced productivity and collaboration tool Google Docs in 2006 where there was no HTML5 and web didn’t made the advance that we are seeing today. Microsoft did it lot late when Office 365 was launched in 2011. But if you compare Google Apps with Microsoft Office 365 , Google apps clearly is way behind what MS Office 365 offers. This is the advantage when you wait until the technology becomes mature. Product head of Office 365 was quoted saying “MS could have done this in 2006 but we would see it as compromise. Virtually everyone on planet uses and has formidable trust in Office suite and they can’t loose their customer’s faith by providing half backed product.” And they chose to wait until they could built that level of rich experience on web.
The same might not be true for mobile platform space. I won’t say MS intentionally didn’t innovate in mobile space. I wouldn’t argue that MS had been waiting for technology to be mature to build something like what Apple did with iOS in 2007. They missed the shot with that may be. But now that we are in 2012 and MS has announced Windows 8, we should see how maturity of technology will impact in determining the winner. The mobile space has been booming. Apple saw this very early and so does the Google. They saw tablets is the real thing and desktop PCs are thing of bygone era. They built mobile platform around that. Microsoft came with mobile platform very late. But still they didn’t have platform for tablets.
The OS platform for tablets are still immature. They are mobile OS , and there are large no. of apps for those platforms but still there’s still large no of people who want to do things on tablets which current age tablets can’t do for them. Common argument from apple and google would be that most people want content consumption , games , multimedia etc. That could be true to start tablet revolution when people haven’t seen those half inch thin device doing crazy stuff. But it doesn’t mean they don’t need anything more than that forever.
Microsoft’s promise for One Ecosystem and unified experience really holds value. They demoed
on keynote of build 2011 (check video here. fastforward to 1:03 min.) how devices of different capability will carry single Microsoft windows 8 and how win8 has what it takes to become The One Platform and how its gonna match the hardware advancement (low power, ARM etc.) to allow development of wider range of devices. The development tool for win8 will enable developer to target different set of devices without writing completely differet code for multiple OS. It will allow customer to get same experience out of all their devices. Get everything sync well. Get everything at one place. Experience of being in single ecosystem. This all will be possible with windows 8. Windows8 is possible due to technology maturity. portable hardware of tablet device will be reality after 1-2 years. earlier (when ipad or other tablet were launched) there was compromise with platform in terms of computing capability and so Apple and Google have to stay limited to a “Mobile OS” for tablet. Now Windows8 will come at right time and will provide full desktop capabilities on tablet. If anyone still doubts why would one want tablet to do desktop stuff and wonder how it would even do , please check this video of samsung windows 8 developer preview edition tablet.
Its always difficult to predict technology adoption and technology product success. But this is how I see the happening in post-PC era and fate of Microsoft.
PS: You can check posts about windows 8 on tech crunch